BrutalHonesty

See Your Blind Spots

BrutalHonesty catches the gap between your optimistic plan and reality. It tells you what you don’t want to hear—before reality does.

The Blind Spot

You love your plan and can’t see its flaws. Optimism bias makes us overestimate success and underestimate challenges.

Example

Statement: “I’m going to start a YouTube channel as a side hustle”

Without BrutalHonesty:

“Focus on a niche and be consistent!”

With BrutalHonesty:

UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTHS:

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

1. THE MATH DOESN'T WORK FOR 99%

   • Median YouTuber income: $0
   • Top 3% of channels get 90% of views
   • Ad revenue: ~$3-5 per 1,000 views
   • To make $50K/year: need 10-15 million views/year
   • That's 30,000+ views per DAY, every day

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

2. TIME INVESTMENT IS MASSIVE

   • 1 quality video = 10-40 hours
     - Research: 2-5 hours
     - Scripting: 2-5 hours
     - Filming: 2-8 hours
     - Editing: 4-20 hours
     - Thumbnail/title: 1-2 hours

   • That's a part-time job for months with zero return
   • "Consistency" means this schedule EVERY WEEK

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

3. YOU'RE COMPETING WITH PROFESSIONALS

   • MrBeast has a 100-person team
   • Your "side hustle" competes with their full-time career
   • Top creators work 60-80 hour weeks
   • They have professional equipment, editors, writers

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

4. BURNOUT IS THE ACTUAL OUTCOME

   • 95% of channels quit within first year
   • Common pattern: excitement → grind → disappointment → quit
   • Most channels never hit 1,000 subscribers

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

HONEST QUESTIONS:

• Can you commit 20+ hrs/week for 2 years with zero return?
• Why YouTube specifically? (Newsletter/podcast may be easier)
• Is this for money or creative expression? (Different strategies)
• What's your unique advantage? (Why would anyone watch YOU?)
• Have you made 10 videos already? (Most quit before 10)

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

IF YOU STILL WANT TO DO IT:

• Make 10 videos before "launching" (tests commitment)
• Treat it as hobby, not business, until proven
• Set a 6-month review point with specific metrics
• Have a "quit threshold" to avoid sunk cost fallacy
• Consider it successful if you enjoy the process, not the outcome

Usage

CLI

# Direct invocation
rk-core brutalhonesty "I'm going to start a YouTube channel"

# Adjust severity
rk-core brutalhonesty "I'm going to quit my job to write a novel" --severity high

Rust API

#![allow(unused)]
fn main() {
use reasonkit::thinktools::BrutalHonesty;

let bh = BrutalHonesty::new()
    .severity(Severity::High)
    .include_alternatives(true);

let result = bh.analyze("I'm starting a YouTube channel").await?;

println!("Uncomfortable truths:");
for truth in result.uncomfortable_truths {
    println!("- {}", truth);
}

println!("\nHonest questions:");
for question in result.questions {
    println!("- {}", question);
}
}

Severity Levels

The BrutalHonesty Method

1. STATISTICAL REALITY
   What do the actual numbers say?
   Base rates, not anecdotes

2. COMPETITION ANALYSIS
   Who are you actually competing against?
   What's their unfair advantage?

3. TIME/EFFORT AUDIT
   What's the true time investment?
   Opportunity cost calculation

4. FAILURE MODE MAPPING
   How do most attempts like this fail?
   What's the most likely outcome?

5. HONEST QUESTIONS
   Questions that force confrontation with reality
   What you'd ask a friend in this situation

6. CONDITIONAL ADVICE
   "If you still want to do this..."
   How to approach it wisely

Configuration

[thinktools.brutalhonesty]
# Severity level: low, medium, high
severity = "high"

# Include alternative suggestions
include_alternatives = true

# Include conditional advice (if they proceed)
include_conditional = true

# Base rate lookup
use_statistics = true

Output Format

{
    "tool": "brutalhonesty",
    "plan": "Start a YouTube channel as a side hustle",
    "uncomfortable_truths": [
        {
            "category": "math",
            "truth": "Median YouTuber income is $0",
            "evidence": "Top 3% get 90% of views"
        }
    ],
    "questions": [
        "Can you commit 20+ hrs/week for 2 years with zero return?",
        "Why YouTube specifically?"
    ],
    "base_rates": {
        "success_rate": 0.01,
        "quit_rate_year_1": 0.95,
        "median_income": 0
    },
    "conditional_advice": [
        "Make 10 videos before launching",
        "Treat as hobby until proven",
        "Set a 6-month review point"
    ]
}

Common Plans BrutalHonesty Scrutinizes

• “I’m going to become a content creator”
• “I’m going to start a business”
• “I’m going to write a book”
• “I’m going to become a day trader”
• “I’m going to become an influencer”
• “I’m going to drop out and code”

When to Use BrutalHonesty

• Before big commitments — Quitting job, major investment
• When excited — Excitement impairs judgment
• After being told “great idea!” — Friends are often too supportive
• Recurring ideas — If you keep revisiting, get honest

The Value of Honest Feedback

BrutalHonesty isn’t about discouragement. It’s about:

1. Informed decisions — Know what you’re getting into
2. Better planning — Address challenges before they arise
3. Appropriate expectations — Success metrics that make sense
4. Early pivots — Recognize bad paths before sunk costs accumulate

Related

• GigaThink — Explore alternatives first
• BedRock — Find what actually matters